"There is no ruler who can compare in virtue with a condition of non-rule" -Pau Ching-yen

Botten är nådd?

Allt fler rapporter från ledande ekonomer låter berätta att nu hopar sig tecknen som visar att vi ser botten på den ekonomiska krisen. “Nobelpristagaren” Paul Krugman applåderar, men menar ändå att i USA behövs ytterligare stimulanspaket:

Krugman, a Princeton University economist, said the stimulus plan probably saved 1 million jobs. He said a second package is needed and should be directed at state and local governments as well as spending on construction projects.

Men är det verkligen botten man ser nu, eller är krisen kanske djupare än vad dessa ledande ekonomer inser?

Comments on: "Botten är nådd?" (7)

  1. Joakim Verona said:

    Fundera gärna på varför så många tror på att det fungerar att sätta snurr på sedelpressarna för att ta sig ur krisen?

  2. WacoTaqo said:

    Question of the year!
    I wish Nostradamus was here to help us with that.

    For the moment, I would be wary of taking these reports at face value.

    It’s all very nice that global economic experts attempt to inject a ray of hope in this otherwise extremely uncertain time. And its probably the least Tyson and Krugman can do to avoid sending the wrong signal to investors. The world needs financial stability and to achieve that we need confidence in a recovery. You cannot say “I don’t know” without having negative consequences when you are an economic adviser to President Obama. At least not publicly.

    So they resort to “May be on the brink of recovery” and “possible, though not certain” and “My guess is that we’ve bottomed out”.
    Lets not withdraw our savings and go buy that house we dreamt of, right now, ok?

    For the average Joe, chances are, that the bank owns most of his house and that his savings are intended for a rainy day. Yes, a rainy day and not a stormy day or a once-in-a-70-year-economic-crash.

    And with most investments in the red, how many of us have sold off after this Q1 and Q2 rebound. Or are we hoping for an even bigger bounce now to bring 2009 back into positive territory?

    Would you bet your life savings on “Possible, but not certain”?

    Remember, Quantitative Easing, [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing] is being employed globally by central banks in a more or less desperate attempt to counter the effects of the crisis.

    This is new territory for everyone.

    And if anyone says we’re at the bottom, we need to ask if there are signs of a decisive rebound.

    CNN gives 6 signs to look for, for a recovery in the USA:
    http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/09/pf/rebound_predictors.moneymag/index.htm

    Some of these signs do look more positive today than one month ago. So does that mean we’re at the bottom. Or are we just taking a breather before the next step down?

    I think we are far from the bottom. Remember the old saying? What goes up must come down….

    I quite like the idea of “Economic Repricing” as mentioned by George Yeo in this speech in Cambridge.

    • Hmm, if those “may”, “possible”, “not certain”, “my guess is” and such really mean “I don’t have a clue”. Then what’s the difference? Is it that most people are too gullible to see trough the dressing of the message? I think that Krugman fools himself as much as anyone else. He needs to believe that his advice has worked. Facing the fact that he has participated in digging the world into the biggest mess ever probably hurts too bad.

  3. WacoTaqo said:

    Japp, sommaren har bjudit på något annat än det som vi är van vid. Normalt säger man “Sell in May and go away.”. Men i år har visat ett annat trend.

    Kanske är det som ni skriver att konjukturen har vänt och vi har nått den “Point of Maximum financial opportunity”.

    Eller kan det vara så att hösten kommer att bjuda på flera trendbrott? Kan det gå upp på sommaren, så kan det gå ner på hösten….

    Kanske befinner vi på den ljus gula punkten i Denvers Investments fin diagram? Där det står klart och tydligt …

    “Denial”.

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